UK Macro Environment 2026

Why understanding collections matters now

Over the past five years, consumers in the United Kingdom—and globally—have experienced significant economic challenges. The Covid-19 pandemic initially disrupted consumption patterns, followed by a pronounced cost-of-living crisis as inflation accelerated to levels not observed in decades, substantially eroding household purchasing power.

Government interventions mitigated the severity of these shocks. Measures such as the furlough scheme helped contain unemployment during the pandemic, while energy bill discounts and fuel duty reductions provided relief during the subsequent energy crisis. Despite these efforts, disposable incomes declined sharply, particularly in 2022 and 2023, and late payment issues became increasingly prevalent.

The anatomy of debt recovery: What the data shows

The dataset analysed in this study comprises portfolios purchased by Intrum, or by firms subsequently acquired by Intrum, prior to the end of 2014. This selection ensures a sufficiently long observation period to allow for robust conclusions regarding repayment behaviour. To focus on accounts demonstrating at least minimal repayment intent, only consumers who made at least one payment between January and December 2015 were considered. 

The analytical period spans from January 2016 to June 2025, with observations from 2015 excluded to avoid distortions associated with portfolio onboarding following late-2014 acquisitions by the business. Collection patterns observed within this timeframe are evaluated in relation to key macroeconomic indicators, specifically inflation, unemployment, wage growth, and interest rates. 

Voices from the front line: Operational realities

When it comes to the experience of those closest to consumers, all the operational Intrum team members surveyed for this report said collections have become harder over the past five years than they were pre-pandemic. Just under a third (29%) say this change has been significant.

The number one most common thing respondents report customers saying is that it has become increasingly difficult for them to repay debt than it was before the economic crisis (40%). This is followed by consumers saying they are taking out more credit to pay off their debt (10%) and worrying about losing their jobs in the near future (10%).

Only a fifth of those surveyed say consumers tell them they have no bigger problems in continuing to repay their debts than they had before the pandemic.